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T20 World Cup 2024: Group 1 Qualification Scenarios

T20 World Cup 2024: India, Australia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh are still in hunt for semi-final spot. Checkout Group 1 Qualification Scenarios.


T20 World Cup 2024: Afghanistan and India have a strong chance to make to semis  | Walking Wicket (Source_ ©ICC_X)
T20 World Cup 2024: India to play Australia on June 24 (Source: ©ICC/X)

The Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup 2024 is nearing its climax and the final few games in both groups promises to make this tournament more interesting. While Group 2 is heading towards a three-way battle between South Africa, England and West Indies, Australia’s defeat to Afghanistan at Kingstown has opened up Group 1 significantly.


Group 1, which saw India and Australia comfortably placed following their first Super Eight games over Afghanistan and Bangladesh, doesn’t look as straightforward with two games left. Though India made it two in two by beating Bangladesh, Afghanistan made the group interesting with their first-ever win over Australia.


So, how Group 1 looks and what’s the qualification scenario for each sides’ progress to the semifinal. The two matches left in the groups are India-Australia at Gros Islet and Afghanistan-Bangladesh at Kingstown. 


For each scenario, let us assume that 160 is the base score for the side batting first.


India

With victories over Afghanistan and Bangladesh, India are all but through to the semifinals of the World Cup. But cricket is a funny game and anything can happen. Moreover, this tournament has been unpredictable.


Case 1: India wins 

The ‘Men in Blue’ led by Rohit Sharma are still unbeaten and if they beat Australia in their final Super Eight game, they are through to the semifinal. Then the other semi-finalist from the group boils down to the clash between Afghanistan and Bangladesh. 


Case 2: India losses 

With a strong NRR of +2.424, India can afford to lose to the Aussies by a small margin and hope Afghanistan either loses against Bangladesh or wins by a favourable margin. 


An Afghanistan win makes them level with India and Australia and the NRR comes into play. For India’s NRR to get below Australia, they need to lose their last game by 41 runs and for Afghanistan to go above India, their victory margin should be 83 or more. 



Afghanistan

With this win, Afghanistan have given themselves a golden chance to qualify for the last four stages of this World Cup. They should, however, beat Bangladesh in their final game to boost their chances further.


Case 1: Afghanistan and India win their respective games

In this case both India and Afghanistan will represent Group 1 in the semifinal. 


Case 2: Australia and Afghanistan win their respective games

Afghanistan can still qualify in this scenario. If Australia beats India by 1 run, Afghanistan with a negative NRR (-0.650) must win theirs by a margin of 36 or more. 


If Australia wins the chase off the last ball against India, Afghanistan needs to win the game in 15.4 overs or sooner.


Case 3: Both Australia and Afghanistan lose

The Aussies have a superior NRR (+0.223), so they should lose to India by a huge margin, and it opens a possibility for Afghanistan’s qualification in case they themselves lose to Bangladesh.


The scenario is Australia must lose by 31 runs to slip below Afghanistan, provided Afghanistan lose by just one run.



T20 World Cup 2024_ Afghanistan beat Australia and have a solid chance to make to semis _ Walking Wicket (Source_ ©ICC_X)
T20 World Cup 2024: Afghanistan beat Australia (Source: ©ICC/X)
Australia

The 50-overs World Cup champs, Australia suffered a shock defeat at the hands of Afghanistan, denting their semifinal chances and making the clash against India a must-win. 


Case 1: Australia wins and Afghanistan losses

This scenario bodes well for Australia as they are straight away through to the semifinal along with India.


Case 2: Both Australia and Afghanistan win

In case Australia win by a margin of a run against India, they should hope Afghanistan win their game by a margin less than 36 runs. 


Basically, for Afghanistan to qualify and get above Australia’s NRR, they would need to win by a margin of 35 or more runs than what Australia achieves. (If Aus wins by 3 runs against India, then Afghanistan should win theirs by at least 38 runs).


Bangladesh

The Asian giants have had a disappointing Super Eight, having lost very badly against both India and Australia. They need a big win to have a remote chance of making it to the last four.


Case 1 – Bangladesh win, and Australia lose

An Aussie win over India eliminates Bangladesh but if the former world champs do face defeat by 55 runs, then Bangladesh need to win theirs by 31 runs to finish in the second position.


What happens if rain plays spoilsport
  • If both the games are washed out, then Australia by virtue of NRR will qualify.

  • If the India-Australia game gets washed out, then an Afghanistan win over Bangladesh will see them through to the semis. 

  • If the Afghanistan-Bangladesh game is washed out, then Aussies qualify irrespective of the result in their game against India. 


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